Influencing factors on middle east tourism demand to Malaysia: evidence from quantile regression approach

Suraya, Ismail and Wan Anisah, Endut and Nanthakumar, Loganathan (2018) Influencing factors on middle east tourism demand to Malaysia: evidence from quantile regression approach. In: International Conference on Empirical Economics and Social Sciences (ICEESS’18), 27 Jun 2018, Bandirma.

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Abstract

This research examines the impact of global oil price, exchange rate and tourism prices on Malaysia’s demand for Middle East tourist arrival using monthly quantile analysis from 1995 to 2017, which focusing on 3 major Middle East countries tourism demand to Malaysia (Saudi Arabia, Iran and United Arab Emirates). The estimated of the quantile regression reveals that, global oil price fluctuation has affected on Middle East tourist arrival to Malaysia. First, we attempt the quantile cointgeration test and found that, there is a quantile and combine cointegration effects between the estimated series. Also, the effect of oil prices in the upper 50th and 75th quantiles provinces is lower than those in other quantile provinces. However, the influences of exchange rate and tourism price in the lower 25th and 50th provinces are stronger than those in other quantile provinces. The results therefore show clearly that, global energy prices have a positive impact; when the exchange rate and tourism price in quantile, the influence are more towards an inverse relationship.

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